Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $347,835$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.93 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{411,724.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 117.5)}}\) (asimptote \(411,724.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $19,972$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,675.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 180.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,675.5\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,982$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $42,146$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(267 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,196.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 120.2)}}\) (asimptote \(43,196.4\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,498$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(8.29 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,434.4}{1 + 10^{-0.180 (t - 107.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,434.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,793$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $184,709$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,851.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 142.1)}}\) (asimptote \(226,851.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,036$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(70.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,151.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 127.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,151.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46,833$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $77,470$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(4.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,869.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 116.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,869.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $505$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(73.7 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 64.9)}}\) (asimptote \(468.8\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,722$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,418$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,189.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 126.0)}}\) (asimptote \(91,189.4\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $597$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(13.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{852.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.9)}}\) (asimptote \(852.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,844$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,581$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,659.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 124.5)}}\) (asimptote \(50,659.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $175$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(6.19 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 111.1)}}\) (asimptote \(181.8\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,485$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $301,323$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{317,311.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.3)}}\) (asimptote \(317,311.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,470$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(183 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,741.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,741.1\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,942$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $96,409$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $708$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(100 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,711$ on 2020-08-18