Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $347,835$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.93 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{411,724.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 117.5)}}\) (asimptote \(411,724.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $19,972$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,675.5}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 180.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,675.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,982$ on 2020-08-18

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,146$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(267 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,196.4}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 120.2)}}\) (asimptote \(43,196.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,498$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(8.29 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,434.4}{1 + 10^{-0.180 (t - 107.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,434.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,793$ on 2020-08-18

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $184,709$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,851.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 142.1)}}\) (asimptote \(226,851.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,036$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(70.5 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,151.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 127.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,151.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,833$ on 2020-08-18

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $77,470$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(4.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,869.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 116.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77,869.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $505$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(73.7 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{468.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 64.9)}}\) (asimptote \(468.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,722$ on 2020-08-18

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,418$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,189.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 126.0)}}\) (asimptote \(91,189.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $597$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(13.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{852.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.9)}}\) (asimptote \(852.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,844$ on 2020-08-18

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,581$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(1.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,659.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 124.5)}}\) (asimptote \(50,659.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $175$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(6.19 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 111.1)}}\) (asimptote \(181.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,485$ on 2020-08-18

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $301,323$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{317,311.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.3)}}\) (asimptote \(317,311.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,470$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(183 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,741.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,741.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,942$ on 2020-08-18

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,409$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $708$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(100 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,711$ on 2020-08-18

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 98%
Pakistan recovered 87%
Sri Lanka recovered 86%
Singapore recovered 84%
Azerbaijan recovered 80%
Saudi Arabia recovered 60%
Uzbekistan recovered 58%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 55%
Kazakhstan recovered 54%
Yemen recovered 48%
Tajikistan recovered 40%
Israel recovered 35%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,494$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(3.2 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,222.4}{1 + 10^{-0.087 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84,222.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,705$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,675.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,675.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,381$ on 2020-08-18

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $289,832$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(2.44 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{293,295.0}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.0)}}\) (asimptote \(293,295.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,190$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(651 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,381.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 80.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,381.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,653$ on 2020-08-18

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,902$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(446 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,994.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 79.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,994.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(7.16 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(174.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 8.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $136$ on 2020-08-18

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,938$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(4.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,398.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 111.7)}}\) (asimptote \(51,398.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-08-18

Best fit exponential: \(11.2 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(96.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(26.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,378$ on 2020-08-18